The MOEXTN transport index on the Moscow Exchange declined by 11% in 2025. The downward trend continued into 2026. The index comprises five companies of roughly comparable size—except for PJSC NKHP, which is significantly smaller than the others.
Performance in 2025 was as follows:
- Aeroflot: −1.9%
- Far East Shipping Company (FESCO): −15.1%
- Sovcomflot: −23.3%
- PJSC NKHP: −16.5%
- Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP): −5.9%
Comparative evaluation criteria remain unchanged: the most attractive companies are those with low valuation multiples but high margins, profitability, or forward EPS.
- P/E Ratio. Total sector market capitalization currently stands at RUB 765 billion. The sector’s average P/E ratio is negative. However, this requires adjustment: negative P/E values are not meaningful for valuation, so we exclude FESCO and Sovcomflot. The average P/E for the remaining three companies is 8.25. NMTP leads with a P/E of 4.2. PJSC NKHP is excluded from this comparison due to its comparatively small scale.
- P/B + ROE. No clear leader emerges here. Aeroflot shows relatively high ROE, but its P/B ratio is also substantially higher than peers. NMTP has the lowest P/B in the sector.
- P/S + Net Margin. NMTP’s net margin is relatively high, while Aeroflot’s stands at just 1.9%. Thus, no decisive winner emerges on this metric.
- EV/EBITDA + EV/Sales + Operating Margin. Comparing NMTP and Aeroflot, NMTP appears more compelling: its operating margin is very high—nearly 57%—and its EV/EBITDA is the lowest in the industry.
Conclusion: Based on comparative analysis, Aeroflot and Novorossiysk Commercial Sea Port (NMTP) stand out as the most attractive stocks in the sector. A DCF model for Aeroflot indicates a fair value of approximately RUB 300 per share.
FAQ
Why is NMTP considered attractive in the MOEXTN index?
NMTP leads on operating margin (~57%) and has the lowest EV/EBITDA in the sector, combined with a low P/E (4.2) and P/B ratio.
What explains Aeroflot’s inclusion despite low net margin?
Aeroflot’s modest P/E (8.25), strong ROE, and DCF-derived fair value of RUB 300 support its relative appeal amid sector-wide weakness.
Why were FESCO and Sovcomflot excluded from P/E analysis?
Both reported negative earnings in 2025, rendering their P/E ratios meaningless for comparative valuation—so they were excluded per standard practice.
