USDRUB has been rising for the third consecutive week: at the end of January, USD increased by 0.7%, last week the growth was 1.3%, and since the beginning of this week, it has risen another 0.4%. However, the situation is changing only slightly: the dollar rate stands at 77.3 rubles – levels seen in May 2025, and before that in May 2023.
Inflation for the last week of January came in at 0.2% compared to 0.19% the previous week. On an annual basis, it reached 6.45%.
On Friday, a whole block of statistics on unemployment, GDP, and retail sales for the full year 2025 was released. In brief:
- Unemployment at 2.2% – historically low
- GDP – growth of 1%
- CPI (inflation) 8.7%. Recall that for 2024 it was 9.5%.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance updated the budget execution figures for January. And here it’s a bit alarming: the deficit is already around 1.7 trillion rubles, with some nuances.
On Friday, February 13, the Central Bank meeting will take place, and it’s not entirely clear what the decision will be. For example, Finam’s official view is to keep it at 16%. But in reality, there is still a chance they might lower it by 50 basis points. At least, the indicative money market rates suggest such a move. We watch…
Stock Market
The MOEX Index failed to break through 2800 points and retreated. Trading is currently at 2720 points. Last week, the index fell by 1.7%, and since the start of this week, the decline is about 0.6%.
The construction index leads in declines. MOEXRE dropped 3.4% over the past two weeks, mainly due to the fall in Samolet shares. Last week, its capitalization fell by 12%.
The situation is not great in the Oil and Gas sector (-2.2%), Metals and Mining (-2.2%), and Transportation sector (-2.3%).
Financials are outperforming the market – the sector gained 1.8%. VTB performed well here, with shares up 7.6% last week. Expectations of high net profit in 2026 may have played a role.
The Chemicals and Petrochemicals sector stayed flat. The Power Utilities sector fell slightly (down 0.75% over two weeks).
World News
The US and Iran failed to reach an agreement. Negotiations in Oman on Friday, February 6, did not lead to success.
Oil price remains relatively high – near $69 per barrel. All would be fine if not for the widening spreads on Russian grades: the spread is now about $20-25 per barrel, which is high compared to the average of $12-13 last year.
Gold and silver dropped significantly last week: gold fell 2%. On some days, the decline reached 8%. Silver rate decreased by 8.5%. The culprit is Kevin Warsh. Trump is nominating him to head the Fed after Powell. Warsh is an unknown quantity, and the market feared he might keep rates high. This caused the dollar to strengthen, while metal prices fell. Also, the substantial speculative component in prices contributed to the drop.
