The USD/RUB exchange rate has risen for three straight weeks, reaching 77.3 rubles per dollar—levels last seen in May 2025 and May 2023. Late January saw a 0.7% increase, last week 1.3%, and this week so far 0.4%.
Inflation for the last week of January was 0.2%, up slightly from 0.19% the prior week, with the annual rate at 6.45%.
Friday released key 2025 full-year data on unemployment, GDP, and retail sales:
- Unemployment at 2.2%—historically low
- GDP growth of 1%
- IPC inflation at 8.7%, down from 9.5% in 2024
The Finance Ministry updated January budget figures, showing a deficit of about 1.7 trillion rubles with some concerning details.
The Central Bank meets this Friday, February 13. Finam expects rates to hold at 16%, but money market signals suggest a possible 50 basis point cut. Markets are watching closely.
Stock Market Update
The MOEX Index failed to break 2800 points and retreated to 2720. It fell 1.7% last week and 0.6% so far this week.
Construction index led declines, with MOEXRE down 3.4% over two weeks, driven by a 12% drop in Samolet shares last week.
Oil & Gas (-2.2%), Metals & Mining (-2.2%), and Transport (-2.3%) sectors also weakened.
Financials outperformed, up 1.8%, led by VTB shares rising 7.6% on expectations of strong 2026 net profit.
Chemicals & Petrochemicals held steady, while Utilities fell mildly by 0.75% over two weeks.
Global News
US-Iran talks in Oman on February 6 failed to reach agreement.
Oil prices hover near $69 per barrel, but spreads on Russian grades have widened to $20-25 per barrel from last year’s $12-13 average.
Gold dropped 2% last week, with intraday dips to 8%; silver fell 8.5%. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair sparked fears of steady rates, boosting USD and pressuring metals amid speculative positioning.
FAQ
What is the current USD/RUB trend?
USD/RUB has gained 0.7% late January, 1.3% last week, and 0.4% this week, hitting 77.3—levels from May 2025.
What does the Central Bank meeting mean for rates?
February 13 decision: Finam sees 16% hold, but market rates hint at possible 50bp cut.
Which sectors performed best on MOEX?
Financials rose 1.8% led by VTB (+7.6%); construction, oil/gas, metals lagged with 2-3% drops.
