On Monday, January 27, the euro was down at the close of trading. In the American session, the EURUSD pair fell to 1.1010. The weakening of the euro is a result of mad dash to invest in protective assets, amid fears regarding the spread of the coronavirus in China. Traders are happy because market volatility has gone through the roof — economic indicators have been overshadowed. US stock indexes closed 1.5% down, likewise the European by 1.2%. There is no panic, but we think another powerful downward wave is set to rock the stock market. This will affect oil, as well as currency pairs.
Today’s events (GMT+3)
- 10:00 Switzerland: Trade Balance (Dec).
- 14:00 UK: CBI Distributive Trades Survey — Realized (MoM) (Jan).
- 16:30 USA: Durable Goods Orders (Dec).
- 17:00 USA: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Nov).
Current situation
Yesterday’s expectations were fully justified. A new intraday high was set, and the price then fell to 1.1010 in the US session. The 135th degree provides support, and from it, the price recovered back to 1.1025 and is now trading at 1.1019.
A double bullish divergence has formed on the hourly TF. Since the AO indicator has already rolled back to the zero line, we do not pay attention to it. The conditions for a sharp rebound were present, but due to the virus and fears of a further decline in the pair, bulls missed the opportunity.
Given that the new virus has an incubation period of two weeks, a surge of new infections surely awaits us. According to the latest data, the death toll from the new coronavirus has increased by 35%, to 107 people, the number of infected is up by 55%, a total of 4,474 people worldwide. So far, 63 people have made a full recovery.
We expect an upwards correction when the rate of new infections slows down. On the daily chart, levels are visible at 1.0990 and 1.0910. Protective assets await an adjustment today. Prior to the American session, according to the forecast, we can consider consolidation above 1.1010. In the evening session, we will wait for a decline to 1.0995. The probability of this forecast bearing fruit is 65%.
