In this WTI oil forecast, FORTRADER’s analysts provide a technical analysis of the CLx (January 2016) futures contract for the current trading day, along with actionable trade recommendations and precise support/resistance levels. All trading signals in this forecast are derived from an in-house strategy developed by a professional trader; however, they are strictly for informational and educational purposes only.
Previous Trading Day Summary
On Tuesday, December 1, WTI crude oil futures (CLx, January 2016) closed with the following intraday metrics:
- Highest price (H) = $42.23 (−$0.38*)
- Lowest price (L) = $41.17 (−$0.33*)
- Close (C) = $41.85 (+$0.20*)
- Official CL close (December 2015) = $40.39 (+$1.46*)
(* — change vs. prior trading day, in USD per barrel).
The session showed relatively low intraday volatility.
Market participants continued to hold back on major trading decisions ahead of the upcoming OPEC ministerial meeting. Public statements from cartel officials suggest the Vienna summit will feature intense debate over production policy.
U.S. API weekly crude oil inventories were released (actual vs. consensus):
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: +1.600M vs. −1.200M expected
The data missed consensus expectations but improved significantly from the prior week’s +2.600M.
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48.60 vs. 50.5 expected
- U.S. auto sales: 7.81M vs. 8.01M expected
- U.S. light truck/commercial vehicle sales: 18.19M vs. 18.00M expected
- Canada GDP m/m: −0.5% vs. +0.1% expected
Several FOMC officials spoke during the day. Their remarks indicated the Fed remains open to a potential interest rate hike—but stressed that the final decision will depend on incoming economic data. Earlier, the Fed revised emergency lending rules, suggesting regulators do not anticipate major market disruption from a rate move.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, with uncertainty persisting around conflict de-escalation and regional containment.
Germany approved participation in the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS. The U.S. deployed special operations forces to support coalition efforts.
Tensions between Turkey and Russia continue escalating. Russia imposed economic sanctions on Turkey and suspended review and implementation of all oil, gas, and energy-related investment projects with Turkish partners.
Russia continues expanding restrictive measures against Turkey, while Turkey seeks alternative natural gas suppliers and introduces domestic economic support policies.
Recall: Turkey controls maritime traffic through the Bosporus Strait and serves as a key transit hub for crude oil and refined products.
The Turkish Navy conducted large-scale naval exercises near the strait.
Oil Market News Flow for December 2, 2015
Key scheduled releases today include the U.S. EIA’s weekly crude oil and petroleum product inventory report. All data and news released throughout the day will be assessed in context of current demand outlooks and forward consumption expectations.
FORTRADER analysts highlight the following additional releases: U.S. labor market data, Eurozone PPI and CPI indices, Australia’s trade balance, China’s services PMI, and further FOMC official commentary.
WTI Support, Resistance & Pivot Levels for December 2, 2015 (January 2016 Contract)
Resistance Levels:
- R3 = $43.24
- R2 = $42.73
- R1 = $42.19
Pivot Point (PP):
- PP = $41.68
Support Levels:
- S1 = $41.14
- S2 = $40.63
- S3 = $40.09
Open Position Summary for December 1, 2015
No long or short positions in WTI crude oil were opened during the trading session.
WTI Trading Plan for December 2, 2015
Today’s Strategy Overview
Trading WTI futures on December 2 requires consideration of the following factors:
- Limited intraday volatility has led to mixed technical readings across support/resistance levels—raising risks of both sharp breakouts and range-bound consolidation.
- Ongoing developments in Syria and the broader Middle East: news flow, rumors, and negotiation progress may trigger volatility spikes.
- Escalating crisis between Turkey and Russia: official statements, policy actions, and diplomatic developments pose volatility risk.
- Indirect influence of the U.S. Dollar Index on oil prices—and potential spillover effects from the upcoming FOMC meeting.
- Pre-OPEC summit commentary from both OPEC and non-OPEC officials may fuel volatility ahead of the Vienna meeting.
- Anticipation and release of scheduled economic data may reduce liquidity pre-release and increase volatility post-release.
Price Condition Assessment:
- Weekly timeframe: oversold zone — risk of exhaustion in downward momentum.
- Daily timeframe: bearish bias — limited upside continuation potential.
- Intraday: predominantly bearish and oversold — risk of corrective rebound to relieve extreme positioning.
The range $41.70–$41.90 is identified as a local reversal signal zone; its width is factored into trade setups.
Long Entry Conditions:
- A test and close above $41.95–$42.05 on the M30 chart confirms rising upside risk.
- Initial target: $42.30–$42.35.
- Watch for local resistance at $42.15–$42.25.
- A test and close above $42.35–$42.45 on M30 confirms continuation upward.
- Next target zone: $42.75–$42.85.
- A test and close above $42.90–$43.00 on M30 confirms further bullish extension.
- Final target zone: $43.25–$43.35.
- $42.95–$43.05 acts as resistance to the current corrective uptrend and shows reversal characteristics; a confirmed breakout above it increases acceleration risk.
- If price accelerates upward, the daily high may form near $43.75–$43.90—a strong resistance zone; a confirmed breakout here raises further upside acceleration risk.
Short Entry Conditions:
- A test and close below $41.70–$41.60 signals renewed downside momentum and termination of the corrective rally.
- Initial target: $41.15–$41.25.
- A test and close below $41.05–$41.15 confirms stronger bearish pressure.
- Watch for local support near $41.20–$41.30.
- Next target: $40.85–$40.95.
- A test and close below $40.95–$41.05 confirms further downside extension.
- Target zone: $40.60–$40.65, with potential extension toward $40.10–$40.15.
- The $40.25–$40.35 range serves as psychological support and the lower boundary of the current corrective uptrend; a confirmed break below it raises risk of accelerated downside—or conversely, may trigger a bounce near that level.
- If downside accelerates, the daily low may settle near $40.10–$39.95.
Please note: This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. Traders assume full responsibility for any direct or indirect losses incurred when using this forecast.
FAQ
What does CLx mean in WTI oil futures?
CLx refers to the front-month WTI crude oil futures contract traded on NYMEX; ‘x’ denotes the specific delivery month—in this case, January 2016.
How is the pivot point calculated for WTI oil?
The pivot point (PP) is calculated as (High + Low + Close) ÷ 3 from the prior trading day—here, $41.68 based on Dec 1 data.
Why does geopolitical tension affect WTI oil prices?
Supply disruptions, shipping route risks (e.g., Bosporus), and sanctions can constrain physical flows—tightening near-term supply and amplifying price volatility, even if fundamentals remain unchanged.
