Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) — investment vehicles that would allow traditional investors to gain exposure to bitcoin without holding the asset directly — have been a focal point of debate in the cryptocurrency industry for months. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) repeated delays and rejections have fueled investor skepticism about bitcoin’s legitimacy as a mainstream financial asset. Today, we discuss this critical issue with Dmitry Gurkovsky, Lead Analyst at RoboForex and guest contributor to Fortrader magazine.
— Hello, Dmitry. Bitcoin today is nearing new lows. A key reason is the SEC’s prolonged delay in approving a bitcoin ETF. Could you explain why the SEC’s decision matters so much for the crypto market?
— Good day, Yulia. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is reviewing proposals for bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds. This process is long and complex — first, because there remains no consensus in the United States on how to classify bitcoin: as a security, a commodity, a currency, or something else entirely. In prior statements, the SEC indicated bitcoin is neither a security nor a currency under existing definitions, meaning it falls outside formal regulatory oversight — effectively operating in a legal gray zone. Approving a bitcoin ETF would signal the SEC’s willingness to bring crypto-based investment products under its supervisory framework.
This matters not primarily because it would open a new trading tier for cryptocurrencies, but because it would represent official recognition that bitcoin is not *inherently* speculative. So far, issuers like ProShares have failed to demonstrate sufficient safeguards against price manipulation on underlying bitcoin markets. Still, the discussion is far from over.
— Do you think the SEC will ultimately approve a bitcoin ETF — and why?
— There is a chance the SEC will issue a positive decision — though it may be narrowly tailored, authorizing only one specific ETF initially. What regulators need most is confidence that bitcoin markets are resistant to manipulation. Once that threshold is met, broader adoption and further product approvals would likely accelerate rapidly.
The SEC’s rejection of ProShares’ application does not mark the end — it simply means the central debate is still ahead.
— How might bitcoin’s price — and the broader digital asset industry — react following the SEC’s decision?
— A broad approval would likely catalyze growth across cryptocurrencies. A rejection, however, would temporarily stall institutional buying of bitcoin and altcoins due to renewed concerns about regulatory legitimacy and trust in digital assets.
— What price range do you foresee for bitcoin if the SEC approves — or rejects — the ETF?
— A positive decision would likely trigger a local price rally for bitcoin and altcoins. A negative outcome would prompt selling pressure — or, at best, investor caution and wait-and-see positioning until market stability returns.
Bitcoin’s near-term price range could be wide: USD 4,500–8,500 over the next three months. Keep in mind that cryptocurrency prices can move significantly faster than traditional fiat assets when major catalysts emerge.
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FAQ
Why has the SEC rejected bitcoin ETF applications so far?
The SEC cites insufficient safeguards against market manipulation, lack of surveillance-sharing agreements with exchanges, and unresolved questions about bitcoin’s classification under U.S. securities law.
What would a bitcoin ETF approval mean for the market?
It would validate bitcoin as an investable asset, likely accelerating institutional inflows, improving liquidity, and strengthening price stability — at least in the medium term.
Could the SEC approve just one ETF and reject others?
Yes — the SEC may grant conditional approval to a single issuer with robust custody, transparency, and market surveillance mechanisms, setting a precedent for future applications.
