29 October, 2026

Natural gas forecast: warmer weather outlook weighs on prices

Jonathan Reed

Expand Energy reported a 44% rise in adjusted net income supported by higher production and stronger marketing performance. NOAA guidance favors above-normal temperatures for early November which may reduce heating demand. National storage levels sit above the five-year average while regional deficits persist in the South Central area.

Weather forecasts point to warmer conditions across the East during the first week of November. Probabilities exceed 60% for above-normal temperatures from the Southeast to the Great Lakes. This outlook suggests heating requirements could fall relative to colder scenarios in key consuming regions. The longer range forecast also favors warmth for early November with average confidence levels.

Natural gas futures for December 2026 delivery traded at $3.014 late Wednesday. Prices are down 0.59% from the previous session close of $3.032. The contract has moved between $3.007 and $3.032 since the session opened at 22:00 UTC. Trading over the last five sessions occurred within a range of $2.497 to $3.092.

Natural gas · D1
Natural gas live quotes and chart

The twenty-session trading range extends from $2.497 to $3.334. Current prices sit in the upper half of this broader window. Technical analysis suggests short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities as the season changes. Historical demand patterns indicate a pickup in December which supports viewing pullbacks as opportunities.

Market participants will watch the EIA storage report due Thursday at 10:30 a.m. Traders will assess whether the national surplus expands and if South Central rebuilding maintains pace. US Core PCE Price Index data releases at 12:30 UTC on Thursday with a consensus forecast of 0.3%. US GDP Price Index figures also arrive at 12:30 UTC against a prior reading of 6.1%.

Sources: Yahoo Finance quotes, ForTraders economic calendar.

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