USD/RUB fell 3.1% last week to 75.46 on the OTC market, levels last seen in July 2025, and is now attempting a slight recovery to 76.3.
Attention focused on trilateral talks in the UAE, where no agreements emerged, but some military experts see indirect signs of real progress. I lean toward viewing this as merely fixing the current stage, given the lack of concrete information or resolution.
With no clear outcomes, stock prices remain largely unaffected. The MOEX Index rose 1.6% last week but is correcting slightly this week.
Year-to-date, nearly all sectoral indices are positive except oil & gas. Power utilities and metals & mining lead with gains of 7.6% and 8.6%, respectively. Consumer sector is flat near zero, while others range from 1.7% to 3.3%. Overall performance remains solid.
MOEX Index Buy Signal Setup
On the daily chart, the MOEX Index broke above 2750 points, a buy signal as previously noted. However, wait for a confirmed breakout and hold above 2800 points; the 2750 break may prove false. The market is consolidating amid uncertainty over interest rates and potential talks.
Metals and Oil Price Trends
Silver prices top the news, up nearly 150% in 2025 and over 50% year-to-date in 2026. Speculation and FOMO drive the surge, alongside debated supply deficits.
Gold has surpassed $5000 per troy ounce. Next target: $5400-5500, potentially followed by correction, though it could break higher soon.
Oil prices broke above $65 per barrel. Markets anticipate a major Middle East conflict involving Iran, risking 3 million b/d supply loss (about 3% of global demand), which would impact exchange rates.
That’s all for now. Have a productive week.
FAQ
What drove USD/RUB to 75.46 last week?
USD/RUB dropped 3.1% on the OTC market to July 2025 levels, now recovering slightly to 76.3 amid limited catalysts.
Is there a buy signal for MOEX Index?
Break above 2750 points signals potential buys, but confirm hold above 2800 to avoid false breakout in current consolidation.
Why are silver and gold prices surging?
Silver up 150% in 2025 on speculation, FOMO, and possible deficits; gold exceeds $5000 targeting $5400-5500 next.
